Energy Intelligence / Sub-Area

Solar, Load & Flexibility Analytics

How well solar generation overlaps with consumption at a facility directly determines the self-consumption ratio, and with it the value of the investment. With the hourly net metering that took effect in May 2026, this overlap is now calculated hour by hour; monthly averages no longer reflect reality. This page explains how we analyze self-consumption and flexibility potential by matching generation and consumption at hourly resolution.

Which facilities this is for

Facilities with solar that want to raise their self-consumption ratio
Operations with regular solar surplus
Facilities that want to match generation and consumption at the hourly level
Facilities with shiftable loads such as cooling, pumping or charging

Matching Generation to Consumption

The self-consumption ratio is not an estimate but a quantity measurable from hourly data; the analysis starts with that measurement.

Data Inputs

15-minute / hourly consumption series (at least 12 months)
Solar generation data, or installed capacity and location (for generation forecasting)
Tariff structure and net metering conditions
List of shiftable loads and their flexibility limits
Grid connection capacity and feed-in constraint

The self-consumption ratio is only meaningful at hourly resolution; monthly totals do not enter this analysis and are used only for validation.

Model and Scenarios

Generation and consumption series are matched at hourly / 15-minute resolution
Self-consumption ratio and solar surplus are calculated hour by hour
Load shifting and storage options are compared for raising self-consumption
The value of solar surplus is modeled under hourly net metering conditions

Deliverables

Hourly generation–consumption matching profile
Self-consumption ratio and solar surplus distribution
Flexibility potential and shiftable load estimate
Comparison of scenarios that raise self-consumption

Assumptions and Limits

The self-consumption ratio is sensitive to data resolution; monthly data cannot see the hourly overlap and overstates the ratio.
Solar generation forecasts carry meteorological uncertainty; instead of a single year of data, a typical meteorological year is evaluated together with on-site measurement.
Net metering conditions depend on the regulatory framework; the analysis follows the rules in force and does not add future changes as an assumption.
Flexibility potential is bounded by process constraints; load shifting on paper is not always applicable on site.

Common Mistakes

Calculating self-consumption from the monthly total generation/consumption ratio and ignoring the hourly overlap.
Sizing solar by annual generation volume alone without looking at the consumption profile.
Modeling hourly net metering as if it were monthly netting and miscalculating the value of solar surplus.
Assuming flexibility potential without accounting for process constraints.

Reference Frameworks

Unlicensed Generation Regulation: Electricity Market Unlicensed Electricity Generation Regulation — the regulatory framework for unlicensed solar, self-consumption and net metering in Türkiye.
Hourly Net Metering (May 2026): The principle of valuing solar surplus hour by hour rather than monthly; took effect in May 2026 through a change in the unlicensed generation regulation.
IEC 61724: Standard for monitoring solar system performance and analyzing generation data.
IEC 61853: Evaluation of solar module energy performance under varying irradiance and temperature conditions.

Methods

Hourly / 15-minute time series matching analysis
Self-consumption and solar surplus calculation
Generation modeling with a typical meteorological year (TMY)
Scenario and sensitivity analysis

Sample Analysis

Below, one day of overlap between solar generation and consumption at a representative facility is shown, together with scenarios that raise self-consumption. The values are illustrative; actual ratios are calculated from the facility's 12 months of hourly data.

Generation–Consumption Matching and Self-Consumption

Sample Scenario

Daily generation and consumption (MW)

Consumption
Solar generation

Scenario	Self-consumption ratio	Solar surplus	Added flexibility
Current operation	62%	38%	—
Load shifting	74%	26%	Medium
Storage added	88%	12%	High

This is a sample scenario built on an example data set; it cannot be used as an investment decision on its own.

Solar and Consumption Data Analysis

The starting point is 12 months of hourly consumption and solar generation data. From it we measure the self-consumption ratio and solar surplus hour by hour, and compare the load-shifting and storage options that reduce surplus in a matching report.

Request a Solar and Consumption Data Analysis