Afectus Energy

Area of Expertise

Energy Intelligence

Storage investment, optimization strategy and energy procurement are not standalone decisions; they require consumption, generation, tariff and market data to be modeled together. Energy Intelligence makes these decisions comparable — scenario by scenario, on a single engineering model.

Which facilities this is for

  • Industrial facilities with significant peak demand charges
  • Plants with existing solar or recurring solar surplus
  • Facilities evaluating a storage investment
  • Companies operating multiple facilities

Five Sub-Areas, One Model

These five areas are not separate service packages; they are analysis layers working on the same data foundation and model chain. A model built in one area becomes the input of another: solar generation analysis feeds storage sizing, consumption forecasting feeds procurement strategy.

BESS & Energy Storage

Power and capacity sizing; technical and financial comparison of peak shaving, energy arbitrage and solar surplus storage scenarios. Results are reported with a payback range, NPV, IRR and sensitivity analysis.

EMS & Energy Optimization

EMS strategy and control logic definition for managing consumption, generation and storage together; optimization scenarios at single-facility or multi-facility scale. Our role is independent consulting — we do not sell EMS software.

Solar, Load & Flexibility Analytics

Generation–consumption matching, self-consumption ratio, solar surplus management and facility flexibility potential, derived from 15-minute and hourly data.

Forecasting & Decision Support

Demand, consumption and solar generation forecasting; scenario analysis and technical–financial risk assessment for investment decisions.

No separate page: this area works as the scenario and decision layer of the other four.

Energy Procurement & Cost Intelligence

Breakdown of tariff and invoice components, comparison of procurement options, and cost impact analysis of market price movements against the consumption profile.

From Data to Deliverables

The backbone stays the same across sub-areas: validated data, one model, comparable scenarios.

Data Inputs

  • 15-minute / hourly consumption and generation series (meter, AMR)
  • Tariff structure and invoice components
  • EPİAŞ market prices (day-ahead MCP)
  • Grid connection constraints and peak demand history

Data is validated before analysis; missing or inconsistent records are flagged in a separate data report.

Model and Scenarios

  • Load profile, generation, storage behavior and cost components are combined in a single model
  • Power, capacity and operating strategy variations are tested on the same model
  • Price, tariff and degradation assumptions are stress-tested with sensitivity analysis

Deliverables

  • Scenario comparison table — technical and financial outcomes side by side
  • Payback range, NPV and IRR calculations
  • Sensitivity charts: the variables that drive the outcome most
  • A list of variables to clarify before the investment decision

Assumptions and Limits

  1. Analysis quality is bounded by data quality. Missing or low-resolution data widens the result ranges; this is stated explicitly in the report.

  2. Payback is always given as a range. No single-figure payback or savings guarantee is produced.

  3. Market price and tariff projections carry uncertainty; scenarios make that uncertainty visible through sensitivity analysis rather than ignoring it.

  4. The conclusion is not always "invest". If the data does not support the investment, that is the conclusion of the report.

Methods and Data Sources

Methods

  • Deterministic dispatch simulation
  • Time series and load profile analysis
  • Cash flow modeling (NPV, IRR)
  • Sensitivity and scenario analysis

Data Sources

  • Field measurements and AMR / meter data
  • EPİAŞ Transparency Platform
  • Current EPDK tariff components

Energy Data Assessment

A 12-month consumption series, recent invoices and solar generation data if available — that is all a preliminary assessment needs. From this data, we prepare a scope proposal defining which sub-areas correspond to your question and which analyses are needed.

Request an Energy Data Assessment