Afectus Energy

Energy Intelligence / Sub-Area

BESS & Energy Storage

BESS feasibility is not a simple payback calculation: it is the evaluation of an investment's technical and financial viability by modeling consumption, generation, price, grid and technology data together. This page explains the data and scenarios we use to answer whether a storage investment is meaningful for a given facility.

Which facilities this is for

  • Industrial facilities with a significant peak demand component on the invoice
  • Plants with existing solar and regular solar surplus
  • Facilities with continuous or multi-shift production
  • Facilities with flexible loads that can exploit price volatility

How Feasibility Is Built

The same chain is followed from data preparation to scenario comparison; each step is the input of the next.

Data Inputs

  • 15-minute consumption series (at least 12 months, meter / AMR)
  • Solar installed capacity and generation data (if any)
  • Tariff type and peak / day / night components
  • EPİAŞ day-ahead market clearing price (MCP) series
  • Grid connection capacity and peak demand history

Data is validated before analysis; missing or low-resolution records are flagged in a separate data report.

Model and Scenarios

  • Peak shaving, arbitrage and storing solar surplus for self-consumption use cases are defined
  • Power (MW) and capacity (MWh) variations are swept on the same model
  • Cycling, degradation and efficiency losses are included in the model
  • Each scenario is paired with CAPEX / OPEX and cash flow

Deliverables

  • Scenario comparison table: power / capacity, peak reduction, payback
  • NPV, IRR and payback range
  • Load profile chart before / after BESS
  • Sensitivity charts and a list of critical variables

Assumptions and Limits

  1. Monthly invoice data averages out peak moments and understates the required storage power; a 15-minute series is essential for sizing.

  2. Payback is reported as a range (for example 5–7 years); because the result depends on the price and tariff scenario, no single-year figure or savings guarantee is given.

  3. Battery degradation and price projections are uncertain over a ten-year horizon; these variables are not held constant but tested with sensitivity analysis.

  4. At some facilities the current tariff and price structure does not support storage; in that case the report recommends deferring the investment or narrowing its scope.

Common Mistakes

  1. Sizing from total annual consumption — without 15-minute resolution, peak behavior is invisible.

  2. Deciding on a single price or tariff scenario — ignoring price volatility.

  3. Neglecting degradation and calculating ten years of revenue at first-year capacity.

  4. Sizing peak shaving by power (MW) alone — missing that capacity (MWh, duration) is the binding constraint.

Reference Frameworks

IEC 62933 series
Electrical energy storage systems: a standard series covering terminology, unit parameters and safety requirements.
IEC 62619
Safety requirements for lithium cells and batteries in industrial applications.
NFPA 855
Installation and siting safety standard for stationary energy storage systems.
EPDK Storage Regulation
The regulatory framework for electricity storage activities in Türkiye.

Methods

  • Slot-based deterministic dispatch simulation
  • Cycling and degradation modeling
  • Cash flow analysis (NPV, IRR, payback)
  • Sensitivity and scenario analysis

Sample Analysis

The comparison below is prepared on a representative facility profile: it shows how different BESS scenarios affect the load profile and payback. In the hybrid scenario, part of the capacity is reserved for arbitrage, so peak reduction is lower than in peak shaving. The table summarizes sizing and payback only; NPV and IRR appear in the full report.

BESS Feasibility — Scenario Comparison

Sample Scenario

Daily load profile (MW)

02400:0006:0012:0018:0024:00
  • Current load
  • With BESS
  • Peak target
ScenarioPower / CapacityPeak reductionPreliminary payback
Peak shaving0.9 MW / 1.8 MWh20–25%5–7 years
Arbitrage1.2 MW / 2.4 MWh7–9 years
Hybrid1.2 MW / 2.4 MWh14–18%5–6 years

This is a sample scenario prepared with representative data; it cannot be used as an investment decision on its own.

BESS Feasibility Consultation

From a 12-month, 15-minute consumption series and solar generation data if available, we return a scope proposal defining which use cases are meaningful for your facility and which analyses are needed.

Request a BESS Feasibility Consultation